Danger lurks in Turkmenistan - by Andrei Tsygankov
The death last month of Turkmen dictator Saparmurat Niyazov has all the potential to transform both security and political economy in the region, and the implications of the regime's evolution can hardly be overestimated.
Enormous natural-gas reserves, the extremely volatile geopolitical environments in neighboring Afghanistan, Iran and Uzbekistan, and a very grave human-rights situation may place Turkmenistan in the middle of Central Asia's development in the mid-term perspective. Yet, largely because of the closed nature of the country's political system, there is little discussion of alternative paths available to the regime. A better understanding of the nature of Niyazov's regime is essential for having such a discussion. The Turkmen regime is best described as sultanist, not totalitarian or authoritarian.
This is an extremely dangerous proposition given Russia's own internal weakness, the volatile geopolitics of the region, and the delicate cross-religious balance in the world. Use of force is sure to destabilize the region further and to escalate the ongoing global war of civilizations. Economic and political pressures too are more likely to facilitate the instability scenario, particularly if great powers of the region do not agree on an overall strategy of isolating the Turkmen regime.
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