International: Presidential election contest in France: Panic grips the Socialist Party

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Presidential election contest in France: Panic grips the Socialist Party in France

She had begun her election campaign as a “moderniser” in the manner of Tony Blair, ditching past social reform concepts along the way as she sought to position herself even further to the right than her main rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, the candidate of the governing Gaullist party, the UMP (Union pour un Mouvement Populaire). When this strategy encountered opposition, with Royal plummeting in opinion polls, she changed course, seeking to cultivate a more socially friendly image and develop a clearer demarcation between left and right. At Monday’s meeting, she announced that she stood for an alternative social model to that espoused by Sarkozy, and went on to speak of the incompatibility of economic liberalism and social policy. Finally, she brought the “elephants” of the Socialist Party on board—i.e., those leading veteran PS politicians from whom she had previously deliberately tried to distance herself. The twists and turns have exposed Royal as an unrestrained opportunist, who says whatever seems opportune and does what the powerful and wealthy forces in the background tell her to do.

Under conditions where many voters are vehemently opposed to Nicolas Sarkozy, a right-wing provocateur, a man no one reckoned would be able to capitalise on Royal’s decline, François Bayrou, the head of the bourgeois liberal Union pour la Démocratie Française (UDF), has climbed rapidly in the polls and is now narrowly trailing the two front-runners, Sarkozy and Royal.

According to recent polls, Bayrou would win 23.5 percent in the first round of the election, with Royal at 25.5 percent and Sarkozy at 27 percent. Bearing in mind the broad margin of error in poll estimates, it appears quite possible that Bayrou could make it to the second ballot, where he would have a real chance of victory, with many voters of the third-placed candidate—whether it be Royal or Sarkozy—voting for him.