A post-Bush America is not about to fall at Europe's feet - by Martin Kettle
If a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity. Yet this is an important time to look ahead. In 12 months we will at last know who is to succeed George Bush in the White House. Right now, the outcome of that contest is difficult to predict. Nevertheless the election will shape the context of international affairs until well into the coming decade. For those who want to set a course for Britain and Europe during those years, it is not too soon to start thinking and preparing. For the moment, what is important is to recognize two things. The first is that the November 2008 election is absolutely not a shoo-in for the Democrats, despite their strong general poll position and Bush's unpopularity. A President Rudy Giuliani or a President Mitt Romney remains as open a possibility as a President Hillary Clinton or a President Barack Obama. The second is that the new US administration, of whatever party stripe, will preside over a far less benign political moment for the world than many, not least in our continent, currently assume.
If that analysis is right, it means two big things for Europe. First, European nations must build up defence capacity, not run it down. Second, Europe must integrate its military more. This poses existential choices for many European countries, and for Britain it goes like this: if we want to play a role in addressing the world's security challenges, we cannot do it on our own. Nor, after the political humiliation of Iraq, can we do it as bag carrier to an increasingly wary US. We can best do it as Europeans, by ensuring that Europe does its share and that all Europeans, Britain included, invest in it. But perhaps, like Americans after Bush, we're all now in the mood just to stay at home for a while.
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