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6/1/09

Haberanal/EU-Digest: Would Turkey be in the ‘winners' club’ or ‘losers' pit’ by 2023? - by Mehmet Öğütçü

For the complete report from the Haberanaliz click on this link

Would Turkey be in the ‘winners' club’ or ‘losers' pit’ by 2023? - by Mehmet Öğütçü

If I could look into my crystal ball to predict who the winners and losers of the global system would be by 2023 (the centenary year marking the founding of the Turkish Republic), do not expect me to give a rosy picture of the future for today’s 27-state European Union (EU). The current recession will no doubt ease by the end of this year, though the deep-seated systemic problems will remain, and companies will begin taking on workers again, signaling the end of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This setback may herald a new era in the global system fundamentally altering the political and economic balance of power. The post-crisis era also looks certain to shake the established institutions, rules and players redefining a gradually emerging ‘new world order’ that is likely to reduce the influence and power of super-majors such as the US, Japan and the EU to the benefit of BRIC (Brazil, India and China) nations.

Note EU-Digest "This lengthy article by Mr.Mehmet Öğütçü unfortunately shows he has become a supporter of the British Euro sceptics. For those who are not familiar with the British Euro sceptics: they are a misguided group of people who don't believe in the European Union and have the illusion that Britain can go at it alone. They also rather sit on the lap of Uncle Sam (with all the recent economic negative consequences) than support the EU, the hand that feeds them through trade. Mr.Mehmet Öğütçü also seems to be an articulate Turkish nationalist (nothing wrong with that), who has some difficulties in identifying the difference between fiction and reality when it comes to Turkish membership in the EU.

Rest assured Mr. Öğütçü, the majority of EU member states leaders are convinced Turkey will eventually become a member of the EU. Obviously only after it meets all the requirements for membership, and more important, if it still wants to join. But one has to be realistic, Turkey, with its more than 70 million people, complex economic infrastructure and social fabric, can not be compared with the small, poor, corrupt, and functionally disorganized Eastern European nations which were recently admitted to the EU. These small states regardless of their incredible problems are far easier manageable than a "giant" country like Turkey would be if it came into the Union before it put its own house in order. This assessment might seem unfair when looking at the issue from a Turkish perspective, but it certainly is a realistic one."

1 comment:

mehmet öğütçü said...

Thanks for portraying me as a "Turkish nationalist" and "Euro-sceptical". True, I am a nationalist if you define it as someone who tries to maximise his country's interest and promote the well-being of his people. Also, as someone who attempts to see how the future trends are evolving and suggest where you should be amidst the shifting centers of power. True, I am a Euro-sceptic despite the fact that I worked on Turkey's customs union with the EU when I was a Turkish diplomat, that I studied at College d'Europe as a Jean Monnet fellow, Bruges, which is the breeding ground for EC's Eurocrats and that I have been working with the EU institutions for more than 30 years.
Nothing is black-and-white. We need to be open to wider spectrum of options and analyse the present and future with an open mind, without being the prisoner of one single perspective. I hope that this article I penned a few years ago has added to the body of knowledge and spiced the perennial debate on Turkey's EU accession from the perspective of a "devil's advocate".
kind regards
Mehmet Ogutcu
London