UK elections: Thanks to debates, the UK heads for a political crisis

The usual third-running Liberal Democrats party has leapt into second place, and the Scottish and Welsh nationalist parties are expected to pick up seats.

The country is heading for a result that is genuinely unpredictable and that promises to spark a full-blown crisis of political legitimacy. It is quite likely that Labour will get the least number of votes but retain the largest number of seats, and the Liberal Democrats will have half the seats of the other parties for about the same vote. Any relationship between voting numbers and representation will be visibly sundered.

This can all be put down to one single cause: the debates. For the first time in British history, party leaders agreed to a series of three debates. Even if Labour achieves only a 28 per cent vote, they will take around 280 seats in the 650-seat Parliament; the Tories on 33 per cent will get 245 seats, and the Lib Dems on 29 per cent will get only around 95. The seats would suggest that the Lib Dems then support Labour, the raw vote would suggest they support the Tories.

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