They fear they've seen this movie before. In the first reel, the world watches with awe as the streets of a distant capital fill with the young and the angry, brave enough to shake their fist at a hated dictator. In the second, the statues fall, the tyrant flees and all hail a triumph for democracy. But in the final reel there's a twist: the original street rebels are pushed aside, replaced by a tyranny just as ruthless as the one it toppled – and much more menacing to its neighbours.
That's the movie famously screened in Tehran in 1979 and which Israelis fear they are watching again in Cairo in 2011. One senior Israeli official told me: "You can't watch the scenes of all these young people demanding their freedom and not get excited." But at the same time, a question keeps nagging: "Where's this heading?"
The answer Israelis dread is a replay of the Iranian revolution. They recall that the Tehran crowds which won western hearts 31 years ago also looked secular and modern – only to be rapidly displaced by a dictatorship of the ayatollahs. Israel's Egypt-watchers fret that the country's secular opposition parties are small, comprised of intellectuals with little grassroots support. Only the Muslim Brotherhood has the resources and organisation to take control. If the current regime topples, they expect the Islamists to take its place.
For more: When Egypt shakes, it should be no surprise that Israel trembles | Jonathan Freedland | Comment is free | The Guardian
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