Sarkozy and French politics: Down, but far from out

On paper the Socialists should sweep to victory next year. They have not won the presidency since François Mitterrand was re-elected nearly a quarter of a century ago. Voters are fed up with the mercurial Mr Sarkozy; he has become the most unpopular president under the Fifth Republic a year away from a re-election bid. “He is still paying for the mistakes he made when he was first elected,” laments one senior party figure. The Strauss-Kahn affair does not seem to have backfired on the Socialists. Left-wing voters appear to consider his arrest a personal difficulty, not a party matter, and have swung behind the alternatives. One poll finds that Mr Hollande would beat Mr Sarkozy by 60% to 40% in a presidential second-round vote; Ms Aubry would fare almost as well, winning by 58% to 42%.

It would, however, be a big mistake to rule Mr Sarkozy out. In recent months, mindful of the virulent criticism of his style, he has been studiously discreet, trying hard to behave in a more presidential manner. This week, while unveiling €35 billion ($50 billion) of investment in technology and research, the fruit of a national bond, he tried to distance himself from petty politics with lofty talk of preparing for “the France in 20 years’ time”. He did his best not to look smug when he hosted world leaders at a recent G8 summit in Deauville. He has even managed not to crow publicly about the pregnancy of his wife, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy.

Another factor in Mr Sarkozy’s favour is the French economy. After decent first-quarter figures, Insee, the national statistics body, forecasts GDP growth in 2011 of 2.1%—higher than the government’s own estimate. The IMF states that “growth in 2011 is likely to exceed earlier expectations”. The French know that they are not sheltered from the turmoil in Greece and elsewhere in the euro zone. But such trends are nonetheless comforting.

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