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11/12/11

US Economy in the spotlight: After Europe Change, Time for Market to Focus on US Economy

Political change in Italy and Greece may help soothe markets and allow investors to assess whether the coming week's economic data signals better U.S. growth.

Analysts say a risk for markets in the next two weeks will be the Congressional "super committee," tasked with finding a minimum of $1.2 trillion in deficit reductions over 10 years. While analysts think there's a good chance the bi-partisan committee will identify the cuts by its Nov. 23 deadline, there is also concern in the markets that it will not come to an agreement. But J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli, in a note, sees odds of the committee finding the full amount of cuts at just 30 percent, and a more likely scenario is that it only finds some reductions by Nov. 23. That would trigger a portion of the automatic cuts if it does not find the balance of the $1.2 trillion reductions by Jan. 15.

If the committee fails to find the full $1.2 trillion, analysts say the markets will not take it well. "I think there would be another shock, or after shock, but I think it would not be as bad as the summer," said Thayer.

Another risk analysts fear is the potential for another cut to the U.S. credit rating, if the committee fails. S&P cut the U.S. triple-A rating by one notch during the summer.

For more: After Europe Change, Time for Market to Focus on US Economy - Europe Business - CNBC

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