The Arab Spring Revisited: How Arab Monarchies Can Survive - by Prof. Dr. Ludger Kuehnhardt

"Revolutions are not processes of social engineering. They unfold as an intrinsically unpredictable flow of events. Structurally, revolutions will go through phases, often through contradictory periods. Hardly any revolution will evolve without turbulances and phases of consolidation. And: Revolutions do not happen without moments of stagnation, surprising advancement and unexpected transformation.

How can one explain the almost paradoxical phenomenon that hereditary monarchies – at least for the time being – seem to be less affected by the protest against personal rule and patrimonial authoritarianism that has resonated across the Arab world? One initial observation is undeniable: Saudi-Arabia is particularly interested in supporting Arab monarchies and it is doing so with an enormous amount of money. In fact, Saudi Arabia may even be interested in preventing too far-reaching democratization in Arab republics. But the vested interests of the Saudi family alone do not explain why Arab monarchies tend to be more resilient to the current wave of protest to be heard all over the Arab world. One has to go beyond the obvious and look for structural explanations. Most evident – and well beyond the Arab world – is the fact that power based on traditional legitimacy continues to play a stabilizing role in the transformation of societies and their political systems.

The hereditary rulers in the Arab world may not have so much time. What is truly new of the events of 2011 is the spirit of the Arab Spring: self-empowerment of Arab societies, bringing back dignity and hope to frustrated and marginalized societies, enabling millions of citizens to act as proud, self-confident and open partners of their neighbors. This might only be the first step in a long, complex and often vexed journey. Currently, the main focus among transatlantic partners is on the future of Arab republics which are torn between the most extreme possible scenarios. Some may think that Arab monarchies will be the last to reform and hence can be neglected right now. There are good reasons to argue for the opposite. Unreformed Arab monarchies could undermine any progress currently made in Arab republics. But reformed, transformed and consolidated Arab monarchies could become reliable agents for change and legitimacy in a renewed Arab world."

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