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10/27/12

Ukraine's choice: between East and West - by Jacek Saryusz-Wolski

The EU understands the approach that Ukraine is taking with it. Ukraine needs to find a new strategy and make a fundamental choice. 
Ukraine's parliamentary elections on Sunday (28 October) and its presidential elections in 2015 will have a defining impact on the choice of the road that Ukraine will take and whether that road leads to deeper integration into Europe.

Opposition leaders need to understand that the upcoming election offers a historic opportunity to reach a consensus among all actors of the democratic opposition. They have seen one of the leaders of the Orange Revolution, Viktor Yushchenko, first poisoned during the revolution and now politically sidelined, following his presidency (2005-10); the other, Yulia Tymoshenko, is now in prison. If, despite this, they fail to reach an agreement, they will not be able to counter the worst: a constitutional majority of the Party of the Regions in Verkhovna Rada.

Ukraine, the biggest country within the EU's Eastern Partnership, appears not to be taking into consideration that its choices – now and in 2015 – will have an impact on the geopolitics of the entire region, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. The region's future, its stability (both geostrategic and civilisational), and its long-term pro-EU choice depends to a large extent on the choices made by Ukraine.

Ukraine is tempted to play it both ways. A balancing act between east and west, between the Eurasian Union and the European Union, has not only been considered but also put into practice. Contorted tactics and the absence of a uniform strategy: these are characteristics of the way that the Ukrainian authorities work. They are based on four principles, all of them well understood by EU officials.

The first principle is promise Europe and Russia everything that they want to hear.

The second is in return, demand concessions, licences and market access, financial aid and advantageous gas prices.

Thirdly, cash in licences but do not rush to fulfil your commitments.

Fourthly, if Russia or the EU raise concerns, blackmail them by threatening to tighten relations with the other one.

This is the classic pattern of Ukraine's two-vector policy, a policy that amounts to toying with her suitors. These tactics worked for some time. But that time is long gone – and will never return. Because of the meandering course that it has taken, Ukraine has lost its credibility in the eyes of the EU.

Read more: Ukraine's choice: between East and West | European Voice

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