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| President Obama in New Jersey |
“Election officials were ordering generators, moving voting locations and figuring out how to transport poll workers displaced from coastal areas as Tuesday’s presidential election became the latest challenge for states whacked by Superstorm Sandy,” the AP writes. “The storm, which devastated East Coast communities with power outages, flooding and snow, had already disrupted early voting in parts of Maryland, West Virginia, New Jersey and North Carolina. With less than a week to go before the general election, officials in the hardest-hit states were scrambling to ensure orderly and fair balloting in places still dark or under water.”
And: Michael McDonald, a professor of public affairs at George Mason University in Virginia who studies turnout, said a calamitous weather event right before a presidential election was unprecedented. McDonald said that in such a tight presidential race any turnout diminished by Sandy could make a difference in the overall popular vote. ‘It’s unlikely disruptions from Sandy would affect the outcome of the election within those states,’ McDonald said. ‘But if those voters, who are mostly Democrats, end up being subtracted from the national popular vote, you'll get a lower vote share for Obama than he would have received if those people had voted.’”
A First Read analysis finds that in the coastal counties most affected by the storm in the four states affected by Sandy and assuming 2008 totals and a 15 percent reduction in turnout, President Obama would stand to lose a net of about 340,000 votes. He could lose 247,000 out of New York, 60,000 out of New Jersey, 29,000 out of Connecticut, and 3,600 out of Rhode Island.
Read more: 2012: Obama is either ahead or the state polls are wrong - First Read
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